By Ryan “Dickie” Thompson – Disruptarian Radio
This is not financial advice. It’s not an endorsement. It’s simply a logical breakdown of a phenomenon that’s been quietly exploited by everyone from weekend gamblers to Warren Buffett himself (yes, that Warren Buffett — see The Art of Stock Arbitrage).
If you’ve been anywhere near sports betting circles, you’ve seen the circus — celebrity endorsements, “get-rich betting tips,” and enough hype to make your grandmother clutch her pearls. She’d probably tell you betting on sports is foolish, and she’s mostly right — the odds are built to make the house rich, not you.
But there’s a wrinkle in the system.
A rare and fascinating one.
It’s called arbitrage sports betting — or “arbing” if you want to sound like you’ve been doing this since the horse-and-buggy days of bookmakers. It’s not gambling in the traditional sense, because it doesn’t rely on guessing who will win. Instead, it exploits a pricing discrepancy between different betting platforms to lock in a profit no matter the outcome.
How It Works – Betting on Both Horses in the Race
Imagine the Golden State Warriors are playing the Chicago Bulls.
Bookmaker A offers 2.83 odds on the Warriors winning.
Bookmaker B offers 1.67 odds on the Bulls winning.
With the right calculations, you can place one bet on each outcome — in the exact proportions — so that no matter who wins, you walk away with more than you spent.
Example:
- Total money to bet: $1,000
- Bet $370 on the Warriors (at 2.83)
- Bet $630 on the Bulls (at 1.67)
If the Warriors win: you get $1,047 back.
If the Bulls win: you get $1,052 back.
Either way, you’ve turned $1,000 into about $1,050 — a guaranteed ~$50 profit without “risking it all on a hunch.”
The Catch
Before you start counting your future yacht money, understand this:
- Such discrepancies in odds don’t happen constantly. Hunting for them manually is like sifting for gold with a spaghetti strainer — you’ll waste hours.
- Bookmakers hate arbitrage bettors. It’s a lose-lose for them, so they share data, run algorithms, and will restrict or ban accounts they suspect are doing it.
This means if you go too big too fast, you could get limited to $50 bets or shown the door entirely.
The Tech Makes It Possible
In the past, arbitrage betting was the realm of spreadsheet warriors. Now, AI-driven tools like OddsJam and ArbitrageCalc do the heavy lifting — scanning thousands of games across dozens of platforms in real time, flagging those rare mismatched odds that create risk-free opportunities.
One documented week-long experiment (by YouTuber Baxter Persse) used such software to generate over $2,600 in profit in just seven days — starting small, scaling up, and catching one particularly juicy 17% arbitrage opportunity.
Why Warren Buffett’s Name Comes Up
While Buffett isn’t known for betting on basketball games, the principle behind sports arbitrage is identical to what he’s done in financial markets:
- Identify two markets valuing the same asset differently.
- Buy in the cheaper market, sell in the more expensive one.
- Pocket the spread with minimal risk.
In stocks, it’s called merger arbitrage. In sports, it’s called arbing. Different arenas, same mindset.
Reality Check
Arbitrage sports betting is not a lifetime career for most people:
- Platforms evolve to detect it.
- Opportunities can dry up during slow seasons.
- Managing multiple accounts and bankrolls can get messy.
But as long as new betting platforms keep popping up — and they are, constantly — these opportunities will exist in some form. For those with discipline, the right tools, and a tolerance for account restrictions, it can be a short-term profit machine.
For everyone else? It’s an interesting look at how even the “always-win” business of sports betting can have cracks in the foundation.
Sources & Further Reading:
- The Warren Buffett Way: The Art of Stock Arbitrage
- OddsJam Arbitrage Betting Software
- Arbitrage Betting Calculator
- Baxter Persse – I Tried Arbitrage Betting for 1 Week (YouTube)
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