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Guilty Of Being Honest, 2025: race, memory, and what the numbers really say

by | Oct 16, 2025 | Civil Rights, Politics, Social Opinions

guilty of being white

When I was a kid, I was the punk in the corner scuffing my Vans, learning to think with Minor Threat rattling the drywall. One track stuck. “Guilty of Being White.” People still slap labels on it. They miss the point. Ian MacKaye wrote it as a teenager getting blamed for things he did not do. He has said for years it was anti-racist. The D.C. punk scene around him chased real racists out of venues with flyers and boots, not hashtags. Context matters. Facts matter. So does personal responsibility.

The temperature on race in 2025 is high. Everybody has a chart. Most of those charts leave out what they are counting. So here is a clear update, using clean definitions and sources you can check. And yes, I watched Steven Crowder sit in a black barbershop and take heat over crime, reparations, and media spin. You do not have to like him. You should still watch people who argue in good faith and then check the claims for yourself.

First, use the right definition or your chart is a toy

“Mass shooting” is not one thing.

  • The Violence Project and the National Institute of Justice study public mass shootings with a strict definition: four or more killed, not counting the shooter, in public, and not tied to other criminal activity like gang or drug hits. They track these cases back to 1966 so you can compare decades with the same yardstick.
  • Gun Violence Archive uses a broader count, four or more shot, which includes private disputes and criminal crossfire. It is useful for real-time harm tracking, but it mixes very different kinds of events. If a headline uses GVA, it should say so out loud.

If someone waves a graphic and will not tell you which definition they used, take it with a shaker of salt.

Who commits mass shootings, by sex and race

Men do. That is the constant across the best public datasets. The NIJ write-up of The Violence Project highlights common traits over half a century, and the sex split is not subtle. Almost all public mass shooters are male. If you forget everything else, remember that.

Race mostly tracks population over the long run when you keep the strict public definition. Using The Violence Project data across decades and 2020 census shares, you get a stable, directional picture:

  • White Americans, about 58 percent of the population, roughly 53 percent of public mass shooters
  • Black Americans, about 13 percent of the population, roughly 21 percent of public mass shooters
  • Latinos, about 19 percent of the population, roughly 9 percent of public mass shooters
  • Asians, about 6 percent of the population, roughly 7 percent of public mass shooters

Per-capita rates over that long window are similar for black and white males, lower for Latinos, near population share for Asians. The big pattern is sex, not race. Men. Over and over. That is the signal.

About transgender perpetrators and viral charts

Federal crime systems do not log gender identity for offenders, so sweeping claims require careful case-by-case work. Fact-checkers pulled the files and found five transgender or nonbinary suspects in Gun Violence Archive mass-shooting incidents since 2013, which is less than 0.1 percent of GVA-defined cases. Under the stricter public-mass-killing definition, you are looking at a one-off case through 2024. Rare. Full stop.

Population baselines moved too. UCLA’s Williams Institute estimates about 2.8 million transgender people age 13 and up in 2025, versus far fewer a decade earlier. If someone freezes a 2015 denominator to juice a 2025 rate, they are cooking the books.

The honest summary is simple. Mass shootings are almost all committed by men. Race in public mass shootings roughly tracks population when you zoom out to decades. Transgender shooters exist but are rare. Definitions matter more than hashtags.

History is messy: Anthony Johnson, John Casor, and how slavery got courtroom teeth

If we are going to argue about guilt and reparations, we need to tell the story straight, including the parts that do not fit anyone’s team slogan.

Anthony Johnson came to Virginia from Angola as an indentured servant, earned his freedom, bought land, and, like others in that system, used the headright program to bring labor to his farm. In 1655 he went to court over whether John Casor’s term was up. A Northampton County court ordered Casor returned to Johnson as a slave for life. Many historians cite this as the first clear civil ruling in the colonies that locked a man into lifetime chattel slavery. It is a hard fact that the owner in that case was a free black man.

There is nuance worth adding. In 1640, John Punch, an African man who fled servitude alongside two Europeans, was sentenced to servitude for life while the Europeans got added years. That criminal sentence is often flagged as the earliest documented lifetime servitude in Virginia. The Casor ruling is the first civil case that put a free black landowner on the slave-holding side and gave the arrangement teeth in a courtroom. Both matter. Both are ugly. Precision honors the dead and keeps the living from lying to each other.

You will also see a line that Johnson “owned four white slaves.” The record shows that in 1651 he held five indentured servants, four white and one black, under time-limited contracts used for headrights. That is not the same as chattel slavery for life. The Casor ruling is what crossed that line. Words and categories matter here.

This is the lesson. Slavery is not a single tribe’s sin. It is a human sin. Anyone turning history into a team chant is selling you something.

How common was slaveholding and who owes what

I hear this a lot: “Less than five percent of white people owned slaves.” It makes a point about national totals, but it hides the southern reality. In 1860 there were about 394,000 slaveholders across the South. Measured against the whole national free population, that is a small slice. Inside the South, about one in five white households owned at least one enslaved person, and the big planters were a small fraction of that. Two truths can live in the same paragraph.

It is also true that a small number of free black people owned slaves, though this was a tiny fraction of owners and a tiny fraction of the enslaved population. Some of those cases were complicated family arrangements. Some were not. Again, precision beats slogans.

The word “slave” itself traces back to “Slav,” because medieval Europeans often enslaved Slavic people. The Ottoman system trafficked millions, including sex slavery. African states and brokers captured and sold other Africans into the transatlantic trade. Europeans bought them and worked them to death. Americans codified evil, fought a war, ended it on paper, then built a new structure of control with Jim Crow. Not one of those sentences excuses another. A full account includes them all.

The larger slavery story is not over. Walk Free and the International Labour Organization estimate about 50 million people trapped in modern slavery today, forced labor plus forced marriage, with obscene profits from sexual exploitation. You want a righteous fight that crosses color lines, national borders, and party labels, there it is.

So who pays today. My view is simple. If a bank, an insurer, a port, or a university can be shown to have profited from slave labor and still exists in some corporate continuity, take them to court and make it hurt. That is liability, not inherited sin. A federal guilt tax on teenagers who did nothing wrong is bad ethics and worse policy. The same government that cannot balance a budget will not run a generational restitution ledger with fairness. It will build a new office, hire a comms team, and lose the receipts.

What actually helps people in 2025

You know what. Big programs sold as compassion have wrecked the very families they said they would save. If you pay people to live without fathers, you get more homes without fathers. If you tie benefits to income cliffs, you punish marriage and mobility. That is not an opinion. That is how incentives work.

Here is a better plan.

  1. End the drug war. Prohibition hands violent markets a monopoly. Treat addiction, starve the street cartels, and quit turning nonviolent neighbors into felons. It lowers the temperature between cops and communities and frees resources to target actual predators.
  2. Kill dumb licensing that locks out work. No more permission slips to braid hair or drive a truck across a county line. These rules protect incumbents and punish the poor. Work is dignity. The state should not sell it.
  3. Let school dollars follow the kid. Parents know when a school is failing. Give them a real exit. You will get better schools, faster, without begging a bureaucracy to reform itself.
  4. Police with precision. Violent crime is driven by a small group of repeat offenders. Focus there. Use real probation, swift punishment for chronic violence, and stop dumping resources into chasing vice.
  5. End corporate welfare. If you want to talk about who should pay for past wrongs, start by shutting off every subsidy and sweetheart carve-out for politically connected companies. Pay your own bills. Make them pay theirs.
  6. Make it easier to form families. Stop punishing marriage in benefit formulas. Stop writing rules that turn a dad into a liability on a form. The state is not a good father. It is a worse husband.
  7. Let adults speak. Debate is not harm. Censorship is like duct tape over a smoke alarm. The fire still burns. You just cannot hear the warning. More barbershop arguments, fewer HR memos.

Talk like neighbors, not like algorithms

The barbershop clip mattered because no one was holding cue cards. People argued, interrupted, called out bad stats, and tried to land honest points. That is citizenship. We can make it normal again. A free society works when you and I own our words and our choices. Not our grandfathers’. Not a political party’s. Ours.

I go back to that Minor Threat track. A kid who refused to carry sins he did not commit. That is not selfish. That is the only way a free country works. You are responsible for what you do. I am responsible for what I do. We study history so we stop repeating stupid. We use clean definitions so we stop scaring each other with junk charts. We protect liberty because it is the only system that lets neighbors who do not look the same build something together without asking a bureaucrat for permission.

You want better race relations in 2025. Be precise. Be brave. Stop buying fear on subscription. And fix what is in front of you.

Sources

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